IIT in Guwahati has released a new table model to measure rising coronavirus and mortality in India. It is noteworthy that the Duke NUS Singapore Medical University is partnering with the Guwahati IIT Institute in this process of developing a modern scheduling model based on science. The study is based on a rise in active cases in recent times, along with the daily infection-rate (DIR) values for each state.
The joint team has used data science models to analyze and predict the total number of infected people for different states in India in the next 30 days. Since a report solely based on anyone’s model can be potentially misleading, the team has attempted to guard against this possibility by considering the exponential, the logistic, and the Susceptible Infectious Susceptible (SIS) models using open-source data. They have interpreted the results jointly from all models rather than individually.
The data-driven assessment has been carried out by Palash Ghosh, Assistant Professor, Department of Mathematics, IIT Guwahati, and his Ph.D. scholar Rik Ghosh, in collaboration with Bibhas Chakraborty, Associate Professor, Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore.
The report is based on the rise in active cases in recent times, along with the daily infection-rate (DIR) values for each state. They label a state as severe if a non-decreasing trend in DIR values is observed over the last two weeks along with a near exponential growth in active infected cases and as moderate if an almost decreasing trend in DIR values is observed over the last two weeks along with neither increasing nor decreasing growth in active infected cases.
This table model is developed by the state to quantify the increasing number of coronavirus per day and quantify the overall impact. It is also suggested that this sample table may be useful for assessing what the rate of increase will be in the future. It is also noteworthy that the new table model has been developed and used by the company as it is said to be giving false predictions to the earlier table models.
Meanwhile, given the situation in entire India, the team recommends this composite prediction to be used for assessment purposes for each state. States that are in severe category need to do much more in terms of the preventive measures immediately to combat the COVID-19 pandemic.